J Jumadi


A GIS-ABM Simulation for Evacuation Model of Mt. Merapi

Project overview

Mount Merapi is the most active volcano in Indonesia. This volcano has been studied in various point of views from physical to social based research, but still lack literature in the development of evacuation model. This model is necessary to evaluate the possibilities of emerged problems in evacuation processes since the hazard occurrences and the population behaviour are uncertain. The purpose of this research is to develop microscopic volcanic evacuation model using ABM and GIS that is used to explore the spatiotemporal variability of population risk during volcanic crisis with unpredictable eruptive events. There are three objectives will be achieved to reach the purpose: (1) to investigate and analyze the parameters (social and physical) those are needed for evacuation simulation, (2) to develop computer-based volcanic evacuation model using GIS and ABM simulation for multiple hazard scenarios, (3) to explore the spatiotemporal variability of population risk during volcanic crisis with unpredictable eruptive events. The methodology of this research will be highly relied on the GIS-ABM simulation based on empirical studies. The simulation will be coupled of processes model that is developed in ABM and data model that is represented in spatial data. The behaviour of populations at risk will be investigated through questionnaire surveys using area sampling. The questions list is mainly addressed to collect variables namely demographic character, perception toward volcanic hazard, behaviour in decision making, interaction during the crisis, ability to accept alert. Afterwards, this behaviour is analysed and used to characterize the population agent that is generated from high-resolution imagery in the ABM-GIS simulation. 


  • Dr. Steve Carver,
  • Dr. Duncan Quincey

Research affiliations

  • Centre for Spatial Analysis & Policy
  • River Basin Processes & Management


Directorate General of Higher Education, Indonesia


  • Awardee of “Beasiswa Unggulan“ BPKLN-Ministry of National Education, Indonesia for Double Degree MSc Program: Geo-information Science and Earth Observation (ITC, Univ. of Twente, The Netherland), Geo-information for Spatial Planning and Disaster Management (the Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia)
  • Awardee of Indonesian DGHE Scholarship for  PhD Degree in University of Leeds

Jumadi, Steve Carver, Duncan Quincey. SAFEVolcano: Spatial Information Framework for Volcanic Eruption Evacuation Site Selection-allocation. GIS Research UK Conference 2015. URL: http://leeds.gisruk.org/abstracts/GISRUK2015_submission_81.pdf

Jumadi, Carver, S., Quincey, D., 2016. A conceptual framework of volcanic evacuation simulation of Merapi using agent-based model and GIS. Procedia - Soc. Behav. Sci., CITIES 2015: Intelligent Planning Towards Smart Cities 227, 402–409. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.06.092

Jumadi, Carver, S., Quincey, D., 2016. ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi, in: AIP Conference Proceedings. Presented at the THE 5TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON EARTHHAZARD AND DISASTER MITIGATION: The Annual Symposium on Earthquake and Related Geohazard Research for Disaster Risk Reduction, AIP Publishing, p. 050005. doi:10.1063/1.4947401