Research project
Glacial Lake Observatory for Flood Hazards Impacted by Changing Climate (GLO-FHICC)
- Start date: 1 October 2024
- End date: 1 October 2028
- Funder: UK Research and Innovation
- Value: £1,467,990
- Partners and collaborators: Department for National Parks and Wildlife Conservation; UNDP Nepal - Climate Change and Resilience; Nepal Tourism Board; Dr Divas Basnyat, (Water and Climate Program lead - Nepal Development Research Institute); Prof. John M. Reynolds (Reynolds Geo-Solutions Ltd); Dr David Rounce (Carnegie Mellon University); Prof Dan Shugar (University of Calgary); Dr Rakesh Bhambri (Wadia institute of Himalayan Geology)
- Primary investigator: Dr C. Scott Watson
Background:
A global trend of glacier loss is leading to the development of high-mountain glacial lakes that can exceed kilometres in length and over 200 m in depth, therefore storing vast quantities of water. However, their poorly constrained estimates of current and future water stores restricts assessments of water resource availability and potential downstream flood risks.
Glacial lakes can drain seasonally and catastrophically, leading to downstream flooding with high socio-economic impacts, particularly across High-Mountain Asia in countries such as Nepal. These flood events cause widespread concern, spanning mountain communities to development agencies and government departments. However, historical records suggest that most glacial lakes are inherently stable. To ensure that disaster risk-reduction resources are targeted to deliver maximum benefit, and that water resource trends are understood, it is therefore essential to develop a robust evidence base in the context of climate change, accelerating lake development, and urban expansion into mountain regions.
Project summary:
This Fellowship presents an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to assess both glacial lake development and downstream floods in topographically complex catchments.
I will develop an innovative survey methodology to derive the bathymetry of glacial lakes using both a single beam sonar, combined with a cutting edge multibeam sonar system. The latter will produce complete maps of lakebed morphology and reveal the subaqueous glacier structure. Extensive bathymetry surveys in Nepal will underpin numerical modelling and machine learning approaches that conceptualise glacial lake geometry and development trajectories, and quantify current and future water resource trends. The models derived from these data will also provide a scalable solution to robustly estimate dynamic water storage at unsurveyed lakes, therefore reducing the requirement for costly and difficult field surveys. I will also address the critical requirement for high-resolution topographic data to enable robust flood modelling downstream of glacial lakes. These models will identify socio-economic exposure of buildings and infrastructure to flood events caused by precipitation extremes or glacial lake drainage events.
Impact
The Fellowship's outputs will be operationalised in an online open access Glacial Lake Observatory (GLO) platform that will underpin a new era of collaborative glacial lake research by removing barriers to data access and knowledge exchange. The GLO will catalogue glacial lakes globally and will monitor near-real-time lake dynamics using optical, radar, and altimetry satellite data.
Our research culture will advocate for ethical and inclusive overseas fieldwork practices that strengthen partnerships, research collaborations, and knowledge exchange, therefore maximising the long-term benefits of the Fellowship's outputs. Collaboration with leading academics, development agencies, and government departments in Nepal will enable co-production of knowledge that addresses global water resource challenges.