- Start date: 1 November 2021
- End date: 1 November 2024
- Funder: EPSRC
- Value: £2,754,826 (£1,029,997 to Leeds)
- Partners and collaborators: ADS Group Limited, Aerospace Technology Institute, Airbus Group Limited, Arup Group Ltd, Aviation Environment Federation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Cardiff University, Department for Transport, Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS), Federal Aviation Administration, GKN, Heathrow Aiport Ltd, Indian Institute of Science, International Airlines Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, NATS Ltd, Rolls-Royce Plc (UK), Shell, Sustainable Aviation, VTI Swedish National Road and Transport, Willis Towers Watson (UK)
- Primary investigator: Dr Alex Rap
- External primary investigator: Andreas Schäfer (UCL)
- Co-investigators: Professor Charisma Choudhury, Professor Piers Forster
- External co-investigators: Rod Self (University of Southampton), Steven Barrett (MIT, USA)
TOZCA – Towards Zero Carbon Aviation, is a collaborative project involving research teams at University College London (UCL), the University of Leeds (UoL), the University of Southampton (UoS) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
The objective of the project is to develop a comprehensive tool suite to simulate the most cost-effective transition towards a net zero-carbon aviation system by 2050 and a later 2070 date. It will identify the technological, economic and environmental synergies and trade-offs that result from drastic CO2 emissions reductions through changes in technology, fuels, operations, use of competing modes and change in consumer behaviour.
The University of Leeds is responsible for two of the six Work Packages, namely WP2 - Modelling air passenger behaviour and WP5 - Non-CO2 climate impact of aviation. The WP2 work on Modelling Air Passenger Behaviour is led by the Choice Modelling Centre (CMC), Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) and focuses on developing models that better predict passenger behaviour by incorporating the effects of detailed demographic and ‘softer’ factors like changes in people's attitudes and perceptions, social norms, etc.
In addition to UK travellers, data will be collected from travellers from some other parts of the world in partnership with Beijing Jiaotong University, Indian Institute of Science & VTI - Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute. The models will be implemented in the Aviation Integrated Model of UCL to forecast the effect of different policy scenarios. The WP5 work on Non-CO2 Climate Impact of Aviation is led by the School of Earth and Environment (SEE) and Priestley International Centre for Climate (PICC) and aims to quantify the full range of aviation climate drivers, with a focus on the effective radiative forcing from aircraft-induced clouds (AIC).
Using results from a new AIC scheme that will be implemented in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM), we will develop improved analytic response functions with respect to aviation emissions within the FaiR emission-based climate model (Smith et al., 2018). These response functions will then be adapted for inclusion in the TOZCA climate module and integrated with UCL’s Aviation Integrated Model.
The TOZCA project is supported by key stakeholders from aircraft manufacturers, fuel suppliers, airlines, airports, the insurance industry (ADS-Group, Airbus, Arup, British Airways/IAG, GKN-Aerospace, Heathrow Airport, NATS, Shell, Sustainable Aviation, WillisTowersWatson [WTW]), government departments/agencies (Aerospace Technology Institute [ATI], Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy [BEIS], Department for Transport [DfT]) and one NGO, the Aviation Environment Federation (AEF).
The results of each Work Package will be made available to a wide range of stakeholders and beneficiaries using multiple dissemination paths. In addition, six-monthly Advisory Board meetings will provide an important avenue to interact directly with industry and government and to ensure that the direction of the research is consistent with their needs. The project will also organise three theme-specific workshops and a conference towards the end of the project. Participants will include representatives from government, industry, NGOs and academia with a diverse range of expertise.
Further engagement activities will be investigated, including the development of web video clips and the use of social media. The dissemination strategy will be updated through discussions with the Advisory Board about the most appropriate formats, utilising the Advisory Board member networks, and already existing ones from previous projects.