Dr Jonathan Owen

Dr Jonathan Owen


I am a Postdoctoral Research Fellow working on the UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship project “SMB-Gen: Constraining projections of ice sheet instabilities and future sea level rise” supervised by Dr Lauren Gregoire, and co-supervised by Prof Daniel Williamson, University of Exeter. In this project I am developing Bayesian statistical emulation methodology for past climate and ice sheet surface mass balance to be used to simulate past and future instabilities in the Greenland, Antarctic and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the resulting sea level rise.

Furthermore, I work on linking past, present, and future coupled climate and ice-sheet models through the use of Gaussian process emulators and an uncertainty quantification. These enable the comparison of model outputs with reconstruction and observation data via the history matching process. The overall aim is to constrain future predictions of ice-sheet evolution.

I studied for my PhD in Mathematical Statistics at Durham University supervised by Prof Ian Vernon and Prof Michael Goldstein working on Bayesian uncertainty analysis and decision support for complex computer models of physical systems with application to production optimisation of subsurface energy resources.

Subsequently I undertook a postdoctoral research associate position at Durham University supervised by Prof Ian Vernon to perform Bayes linear emulation and history matching of the JUNE model, a stochastic agent-based model for the transmission of infectious diseases, for the Covid-19 pandemic in England and a large refugee camp in collaboration with the UN.

<h4>Research projects</h4> <p>Any research projects I'm currently working on will be listed below. Our list of all <a href="https://environment.leeds.ac.uk/dir/research-projects">research projects</a> allows you to view and search the full list of projects in the faculty.</p>


  • PhD in Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, 2023

Professional memberships

  • International Statistics Institute (ISI)
  • Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM)

Research groups and institutes

  • Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science
  • Earth Surface Science Institute