Dr. Gabriel M. Pontes

Profile

I am a Research Fellow in Climate Modelling at the Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds. My research investigates large-scale ocean–atmosphere dynamics and the role of the oceans in shaping past, present, and future climate change.

I completed my PhD in Physical Oceanography and Climate Modelling at the University of São Paulo and have since held research positions in Brazil, Australia, and the United Kingdom. My work combines Earth System Model simulations with dynamical analysis to understand climate variability, ocean circulation change, and teleconnections across timescales.

My research has contributed to studies published in leading journals, and focuses on how past warm climates can help constrain future climate risks.

Research interests

My current research themes include:

• Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and future change
• El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and modes of climate variability
• Ocean–ice–atmosphere interactions
• Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections
• Polar climate processes
• Palaeoclimate dynamics as analogues for future warming
• Earth System modelling

Research Projects:

• Past2Future: Towards fully paleo-informed future climate projection (2025-present – Funded by Horizon-Europe)
• PlioMIP3: Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 3
• Assessing and understanding the teleconnections arising from a weakening of North Atlantic Deep Water formation due to meltwater runoff (2022-2025 – Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Sciences – ARC-Australia)
• Role of equatorial Pacific variability in the Earth System dynamics (2022-2022 – Funded by FAPESP-Brazil)
• Understanding the Mechanisms of the Mid-Pliocene Atlantic ITCZ Change and its impacts on tropical rainfall (2019-2020 – Funded by FAPESP-Brazil)
• The Mid-Pliocene South Atlantic and Southern Ocean circulations as reference for the 21st century climate (2017-2022 –Funded by FAPESP-Brazil)

Qualifications

• PhD, University of Sao Paulo

Professional memberships

• European Geosciences Union

Student education

Student Supervision

Current Master’s supervision

• Xiaotong Xu

Current PhD co-supervision

• Thauana Goncalves (University of São Paulo)
• Additional PhD co-supervision commencing next academic year

Completed Master’s co-supervision

• Pedro Freire-Sousa (2025, University of São Paulo)

Professional Service

• Associate Editor, Global and Planetary Change
• Co-convenor, European Geosciences Union scientific session, 2026

Selected Publications

• Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation driven by subarctic freshening since the mid-twentieth century | Nature Geoscience
• Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation suppressed by Pacific intertropical convergence zone shift | Nature Geoscience
• Drier tropical and subtropical Southern Hemisphere in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period | Scientific Reports

Media & Public Engagement

• What is the Meridional Overturning Circulation and why is it important?
• Vital Atlantic Ocean current is already weakening due to melting ice | New Scientist
• Meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic is weakening ocean circulation, speeding up warming down south | The Conversation

I have also contributed interviews and commentary on ocean circulation change, past warm climates, and future climate risks.