Dr. Thomas O'Shea

Profile

My early research at the University of Aberystwyth and University College London (UCL) examined the historical evolution of flood dynamics in Great Britain, using geo-statistical methodologies to illustrate 2000 years of exposure and vulnerability across 12 UK cities.

This work is discussed in the Natural Hazards journal article, "Urban flooding in Britain: An approach to comparing ancient and contemporary flood exposure" (2020).

Following this, My Ph.D. project at the University of Bristol, supervised by Professor Paul Bates CBE, FRA, and Professor Jeffrey Neal, developed a ground breaking analytical framework to understand the interactions between social, geographical, and physical elements in dynamic urban landscapes.

This work generated hybrid geographical narratives rooted in economics, sociology, philosophy, and ecology, guided by the Sendai and UN SDG frameworks.

Whilst at Bristol, my doctoral training, funded by the EWS Exceptional Contribution Award, led to the development of a multi-disciplinary methodology that maps urban flood processes.

Utilising an agent-based platform combined with the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model, this research, published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences as, "Testing the impact of direct and indirect flood warnings on population behaviour using an agent-based model" (2020), explores the nuances of urban populations' responses to flood hazards.

Following the successful completion of my Ph.D., and as a Post-Doctoral Research Associate at the University of Bristol, I contributed to:

• The HyPAc project and NERC SHEAR Programme on flood inundation modelling in Kenya's Nzoia basin.
• FRACTAL- PLUS, developing climate change resilience in Lusaka, Zambia with the UK Met-Office and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre through community-based climate narratives. This work led to the publication of "Integrating social narratives of flood events into a text network analysis-based decision support framework to reduce vulnerability to climate change in Africa" in Climate Services (2025).
• The FCDO & Red Cross Tropical Cyclone and flood response network, supporting humanitarian aid with hazard bulletins.

As a Senior Research Associate at the University of Bristol's School of Sociology, Politics, and International Studies, I further supported the rapid assimilation of social data into mapping exercises for complex hazard systems and developed pro-poor modelling metrics for the UKRI GCRF Tomorrow's Cities project.

Since my time at Bristol, I have engaged with the Lincoln Centre for Water & Planetary Health on the Adaptive & Resilient Communities under Climate Change (ARCC) project, collaborating with the Environment Agency and local authorities to develop climate adaptation pathways for Lincolnshire's vulnerable coastal communities up to 2100.

During this time, I published "The shape-shifting form of UK floodplains: fusing analysis of the territorially constructed with analysis of natural terrain processes" in PIPG (2023).

More recently, I have been appointed as one of the University of Salford's prestigious University Fellows within THINKlab and the School of Science, Engineering and the Environment (SEE).

In this dual capacity, I have worked to enhance and expand the applications of complex systems modelling for sustainable urban development in a changing climate.

The role involved leading research skills development in advanced quantitative methods and spatial analysis, fostering interdisciplinary collaboration to address urban challenges, and contributing to curriculum development by engaging in national and international outreach to build strategic partnerships and work on policy interventions to improve cross-scale urban resilience and sustainability.

In addition to the themes of my recent work at Salford, I am expanding on this by supporting the INFUZE project at Leeds, focusing on exploring pathways for transitions towards reduced car ownership.

This role involves interfacing with industry-leading models of future systems, assessing behavioural and infrastructural shifts, and contributing to solutions that support sustainable mobility strategies.

My research has direct applicability to pressing real-world challenges, providing evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders in areas such as public health analysis, innovation, sustainability, and input-output modelling.

Furthermore, I am working on a forthcoming book, ‘Socio-Environmental Complexity: System-Led Remedies to Balance Our Conflicting Requirements of a Changing Planet’, to be published by Ethics International Press in 2026.

Through these activities, I aim to advance knowledge and develop innovative solutions that address the ever-present challenges of urbanisation and climate change.

Qualifications

• Bachelor's Degree (2011) in Physical Geography from Aberystwyth University
• Master's Degree (2012) in Geophysical Hazards from University College London
• Doctor of Philosophy (2023) in Geography from University of Bristol
• Postgraduate Certificate in Education (PGCE) (2016) in Physics from Edge Hill University
• Graduate Certificate (2024) in AI and Machine Learning from Imperial College London