VERIFY: Out of sample testing for early warning systems using past climate

Start date: 1 April 2025
End date: 31 March 2030
Funder: Advanced Research + Invention Agency (ARIA)
Value: £5 million
Primary investigator: Dr Ruza Ivanovic
External primary investigator: Professor David Thornalley, University College London
Co-investigators: Dr Lauren Gregoire
External co-investigators: Dr Ryan Patmore, Dr Joel Hirschi, National Oceanography Centre | Professor Chris Brierley, Associate Professor Erica Thompson, Professor Serge Guillas, Professor Richard Chandler, University College London | Dr James Rae, Professor Andrea Burke, Dr Graeme MacGilchrist, University of St Andrews | Assistant Professor Paola Moffa-Sanchez, Durham University | Dr Liz Thomas, British Antarctic Survey | Professor Xavier Fettweis, University of Liege | Professor Mohamed Iskandarani, University of Miami

This team brings together experts in past climates (modelling, analytical geochemistry and sedimentology), oceanography, atmospheric science, glaciology, artificial intelligence, machine learning and modelling for decision making. Together, they will build Digital Twins – computer simulations trained or merged with real-world data – of past Greenland ice sheet and North Atlantic subpolar gyre tipping to evaluate the performance of new technologies developed by the programme.

Through this approach, the team will hone observational systems, physical process-based models and early warning detection algorithms against real-world realisations of tipping behaviour to build a robust and trusted early warning system.