Thoughts and reflections on the key challenges of Decarbonisation

By Piers Forster, Professor of Climate Physics, Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate

COP27 could see climate diplomacy tested to the maximum as a result, with world leaders delivering - and receiving - increasingly tough messages.  Doubtless, the BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, who represent the world’s largest developing economies and together are a huge geopolitical force, will do both. 

Why exactly is BRICS so influential?  In economic terms, China’s rise has been extraordinary, while India recently overtook the UK to become the world’s fifth-largest economy.  Still, with some of the lowest current levels of GDP per capita in the G20 group (the world’s major developed and emerging economies), and around 40% of the global population, BRICS also faces considerable challenges when it comes to eradicating poverty.

BRICS will also play a massive role in deciding our climate future

BRICS will also play a massive role in deciding our climate future.  In 2020, they were responsible for around half of the world’s total CO2 emissions[1], yet they also present some of the biggest opportunities for decarbonisation . Their ability to decouple future economic growth from greenhouse gases will not only impact their own emissions but also wield a strong influence over those of other developing countries.  Much of the world’s success on tackling climate change hinges on the actions of this powerful group. 

A fair share for BRICS?

Last year’s COP26 summit saw Richa Sharma, leader of the Indian delegation, state that “the meagre carbon budget is first and foremost the right and entitlement of developing countries”.  The remaining global carbon budget estimates how much CO2 we can emit and still have a specific chance of staying within a certain temperature limit (commonly 1.5°C), and Sharma’s comments flag up how the bulk of emissions to date have come from a small number of now wealthy and developed nations.

Allocating carbon budgets to individual or even groups of countries is however fraught with complexities: there is no globally agreed methodology on how to allocate each country a “fair share” of the carbon budget, which would need to take into account not only how much a country has already contributed to climate change, but also factors such as their per-capita emissions and their capacity to reduce them, their current development status, and even which countries present the most cost-efficient measures for decarbonisation. 

regardless of carbon budgets, no country should be distracted from the urgent need to shift away from fossil fuels and fast.  Every single nation on Earth must not only do their “fair share” but do as much as they can

Moreover, regardless of carbon budgets, no country should be distracted from the urgent need to shift away from fossil fuels and fast.  Every single nation on Earth must not only do their “fair share” but do as much as they can. 

So are the BRICS nations pulling their substantial weight when it comes to emissions reductions in line with 1.5°C?  Not according to the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), which has developed a means of comparing countries’ climate targets and pledges with the many interpretations of what could be considered “fair”.

CAT rates China’s current targets and policies “highly insufficient” with emissions projected to rise rather than fall: if all countries were to follow China’s approach, warming could reach up to 4°C.  Brazil, South Africa, and India, with its recently-updated climate pledge, do slightly better, their climate targets and policies considered only “insufficient” but still needing substantial improvement. 

Russia, one of the most greenhouse gas-intensive economies in the G20, lags much further behind, its minimal climate commitments being rated “critically insufficient

Russia, one of the most greenhouse gas-intensive economies in the G20, lags much further behind, its minimal climate commitments being rated “critically insufficient”.  This is despite climate change being likely to have a profound impact on Russia, with two-thirds of the country’s territory lying in the Arctic north and, as with all countries, the cost of climate impacts growing. 

Carbon-conscious decoupling

Stronger ambition and action is needed all round, and especially by the BRICS.  But how can they cut emissions while also pulling their people out of poverty?  Many countries have already decoupled economic growth from emissions, even when taking outsourced emissions into account, by shifting away from carbon-intensive manufacturing and moving to relatively cleaner fossil fuels and cheap renewables. 

Carbon intensity (a measure of the CO2 emitted by generating one economic dollar) has also been moving in the right direction across the BRICS, largely thanks to the plummeting costs of low-carbon energy, even if absolute emissions are rising.  Although South Africa and China are still ranked joint 4th highest in the world for carbon intensity, the most cost-effective opportunities for decarbonisation are now concentrated in the BRICS countries and other developing economies and so realising these opportunities will be vital over the next 20 years, especially across Asia where most of the growth in energy demand will come from.

 India recently announced a commitment to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030

There are more reasons for hope: India recently announced a commitment to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030, while South Africa’s Just Energy Transition Partnership, announced at COP26, is aiming to accelerate the decarbonisation of its economy and potentially create a model for doing so across Africa. 

 India recently announced a commitment to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% by 2030

Success will depend on not just announcements and plans but also action: exactly how BRICS and other developing countries can deliver on decarbonisation must be a key point of discussion at COP, with BRICS leaders held to account on both strengthening and acting on their commitments to decarbonisation. 

Developed nations must meanwhile show they are serious about international standards and also their own emission reductions, especially when it comes to trade, technology transfer, the actions of multinational corporations and sub national actors such as cities.  And let us not forget that facilitating stronger action by BRICS will also mean supporting them financially to adapt to the increasing climate impacts that we all face.

Piers Forster is Professor of Climate Physics and Director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds.

[1] For full data and a breakdown of emissions by country and sector see https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/