Forecasting climate tipping points
The Advanced Research and Innovation Agency (ARIA) has funded four School of Earth and Environment research projects as part of its Forecasting Tipping Points programme.
The collaborative research projects will use artificial intelligence, modelling and early warning techniques to further understand and prepare for climate tipping points, focusing on Greenland’s ice sheet, glaciers and the North Atlantic Ocean.
Climate tipping points are critical moments in the Earth’s system that, when crossed, can lead to significant and irreversible changes to the climate. For example, the Greenland Ice Sheet collapsing would change ocean currents, increase sea levels and contribute to severe flooding.
Predicting tipping points is a major challenge, as past models have struggled to fully understand the complex interactions driving them.
The funding is part of ARIA’s Forecasting Tipping Points programme, which brings together 27 international research teams to improve these sensing systems and computational models to better detect early warning signs of tipping points.
Researchers in the School of Earth and Environment (SEE) are leading four of these projects:
- VERIFY: Out of Sample Testing for Early Warning Systems Using Past Climate
- GAMB2LE: Greenland Automated Mass Balance and Boundary Layer Experiment
- OptimISM: a next-generation framework for ice sheet modelling
- GRAIL: GReenland ice sheet to Atlantic tipping points from Ice-sheet Loss.
VERIFY: Out of Sample Testing for Early Warning Systems Using Past Climate
Project VERIFY will build, test and improve early warning systems for sudden and devastating climate change using examples of climate tipping from Earth’s past.
The team will build Digital Twins of climate tipping points to re-imagine climate events from thousands of years ago.
They will use artificial intelligence to merge information from North Atlantic seafloor sediments, bubbles of air trapped in Greenland’s ice and detailed climate simulations.
The Digital Twins – computer simulations trained with real-world data – will show how and when Greenland ice sheet and North Atlantic subpolar gyre tipping is triggered, so the researchers can evaluate how well new technologies capture and predict sudden and devastating climate events.
Dr Ruža Ivanović, Associate Professor in Climatology and project co-lead, said: “Our research will create the means to test the most cutting edge-technologies for monitoring and forecasting Greenland ice and North Atlantic Ocean circulation collapse to make sure we are making confident and robust predictions of climate tipping.”
Professor David Thornalley, who is the other VERIFY co-lead, said: “Crossing a tipping point in the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre would alter the UK’s climate and have severe repercussions for our biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and more.
“In Project VERIFY we will make use of real-world examples of past tipping points to better understand these events and to test how well any early warning systems are performing.”
Dr Ivanović, Dr Lauren Gregoire (SEE) and Professor Thornalley (University College London) will collaborate with the National Oceaonography Centre, British Antarctic Survey, University College London, University of St Andrews, Durham University, University of Liege and University of Miami on the research.
The team brings together experts in past climates (modelling and laboratory work), oceanography, atmospheric science, glaciology, artificial intelligence, machine learning and modelling for decision-making.
GAMB2LE: Greenland Automated Mass Balance and Boundary Layer Experiment
GAMB2LE will create a modular, scalable polar observatory to evaluate the ice atmosphere in remote, under-sampled areas of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
The observatory, Automated Unit for Remote Observations and Research of the Atmosphere (AURORA), will combine advanced sensing and systems to get live, detailed data about the atmosphere in the most challenging environments. AURORA is designed to act as a node for other sensors in a future early warning system.
Dr Ryan Neely, Associate Professor of Observational Atmospheric Science, said: “As climate change accelerates, the need for innovative and adaptive scientific solutions has never been greater.
“We’re at the forefront of this effort, creating an observatory “in a box” that’ll equip researchers with the tools necessary to identify critical tipping points in Greenland’s ice loss trajectory.”
Dr Heather Guy, Research Fellow in Polar Observational Meteorology, said: “The long-term plan will be to establish a new benchmark for automated polar research, deploy the observatory across previously inaccessible regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and deliver vital insights that will shape global climate strategies for years to come.
“We’ll be measuring meteorological conditions, such as temperature near the ice surface, humidity, winds, turbulence, precipitation, pressure, and solar radiation. We’ll be collecting cloud information too.”
Project leads Dr Nealy, Dr Guy (SEE and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science) and Dr Sarah Barr (University of Manchester) will collaborate with Polar Field Services and the University of Colorado on the research.
OptimISM: a next-generation framework for ice sheet modelling
The OptimISM team, led by Dr Trystan Surawy-Stepney, will develop and employ a new numerical model to simulate the evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets.
This will take advantage of recent advances in computational fluid dynamics and machine learning to improve the speed at which these simulations run, the number of physical processes we can include, and the amount we can learn from data collected by scientists about these remote but vital parts of the Earth's climate system.
For example, it will enhance how we model critical processes like ice fracture and grounding line dynamics.
The differentiable core model will provide a framework for the team to try new methods to solve old and difficult problems.
The team includes Professor Anna Hogg (SEE and British Antarctic Survey) and Dr Steph Cornford (University of Bristol).
GRAIL: GReenland ice sheet to Atlantic tipping points from Ice-sheet Loss
With the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Professor Anna Hogg is a co-investigator for GRAIL.
GRAIL will investigate the link between the North Atlantic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. It aims to evidence how Greenland’s glaciers melting will affect ocean circulation and the climate.
The team will use advanced sensors and artificial intelligence-led models to track the melting, creating new data for early warning systems.
Their results will feed into a prototype early warning system for local and global stakeholders.
Dr Kelly Hogan, a marine geophysicist at BAS and R+D Creator for GRAIL, said: “Greenland is the fastest melting place on Earth, but this ice loss has knock-on effects for both North Atlantic ocean currents and fisheries. This crucial research will help us to understand how much freshwater the ice sheet is releasing, and what the subsequent effects will be on the ocean currents that bring warm waters and weather to the UK.”
More information
ARIA is a UK government-backed research agency designed to support groundbreaking scientific and technological advancements. Established by an Act of Parliament and sponsored by the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, ARIA funds high-risk, high-reward research to tackle global challenges.
The programme is being led by Programme Directors Gemma Bale and Sarah Bohndiek and includes experts from diverse fields such as optics, nuclear physics, and photonics.
Top image: courtesy of Dr Heather Guy
