Uptake of E-Motorcycles

External primary investigator: Dr Harun Al-Rasyid

External co-investigators: Muhammad Farda - Institute of Technology Bandung, Tryas Praesha - Institute of Technology Bandung

Motorcycle is a dominant mode of transport in Indonesia. Nearly three quarters of vehicles are motorcycles in cities such as Jakarta, Bandung, and Surabaya. The road networks are highly congested with average speeds dropping below 10kph during peak hours and emissions from two-stroke engines are a real problem in terms of air quality. Despite major policy initiatives for alternative modes of transport such as Bus Rapid Transit and Mass Rapid Transit in Jakarta, motorcycles continue to grow in numbers due to the ease of purchase and lack of license checks. If motorcycles were electric powered the pollution problem could be reduced.

The objective of this research is to develop a system dynamic model of the uptake of e-motorcycles in Bandung. The project will investigate the impact of subsidies, battery range and availability of charging points on the reduction of CO2 and other emissions. We will adapt the system dynamic model developed for UK passenger cars, and a simpler model of Taiwan which looked at e-motorcycles, to the Indonesian context by calibrating the diffusion model to the uptake of e-motorcycles. The adaptation will consider similar experiences as revealed in Kunming, China where a panel of surveys was conducted over six years through a series of interviews. In order to build the local context, we will conduct sample-based interviews in Bandung to understand local preferences.

A novelty of this work will be to link the outcomes of system dynamic model with a SATURN traffic simulation model of Bandung to reveal the impact on both emissions and congestion. This combined modelling approach will facilitate testing of policy sensitivity to various scenarios involving subsidies, availability of charging points and battery range.


The potential impacts of the project could be measured in terms of e-motorcycle sales in the medium term and reduction of pollution levels especially at critical locations such as major road junctions in the city of Bandung.