What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios

This project aims to understand the demographic changes that the UK’s local ethnic populations presently experience (2001-6) and will experience in the future. We will investigate how differences in ethnic fertility and mortality shape current and future trends, how international migration and internal migration impact the size and ethnic composition of local populations.

The project team will build projections of ethnic group populations for local areas and use the projection model to explore alternative futures.

To carry out the projections, the project will: (1) estimate ethnic group fertility using alternative data sources; (2) estimate ethnic group mortality through indirect modelling; (3) build a databank of international migration for local areas from census, survey and administrative data sets and estimate long-term and short-term immigration and emigration; (4) build estimates of internal migration for ethnic groups using census and register data; (5) develop a population projection model of ethnic populations for local areas that incorporate best current practice; (6) develop a projection model that incorporates ethnic mixing; (7) employ a model that uses origin to destination migration rates and (8) adapt the model to handle different ethnic group classifications in the four parts of the UK.

Population projections by ethnic group from 2001 to 2051:
Grant Reference: RES-163-25-0032

Project website