Using climate modelling and process studies to understand food production and food security

We use climate and crop models to quantify the impacts of climate variability and change on crops. The principle underlying our modelling is that of appropriate complexity (see Challinor et al., 2009 a,b) – as simple as knowledge and data demonstrably demand, as complex as measured data justify. We principally use the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM), increasingly alongside other models including a range of crop-climate indices, DSSAT CROPGRO, JULES-Crop, and Oryza.

We mostly focus on abiotic stresses (drought and, especially, heat), with some work on pests and diseases (nematodes and late blight). Our research is increasingly global in scope. A parametrisation for ozone is being developed for global use, and a broader GLAM-based analysis is quantifying the impact of biotic and abiotic stresses on potatoes globally.